Neural substrates of the interaction between effort-expenditure reward decision-making and outcome anticipation.

OBJECTIVE: Reward anticipation is important for future decision-making, possibly due to re-evaluation of prior decisions. However, the exact relationship between reward anticipation and prior effort-expenditure decision-making, and its neural substrates are unknown. METHOD: Thirty-three healthy participants underwent fMRI scanning while performing the Effort-based Pleasure Experience Task (E-pet). Participants were required to make effort-expenditure decisions and anticipate the reward. RESULTS: We found that stronger anticipatory activation at the posterior cingulate cortex was correlated with slower reaction time while making decisions with a high-probability of reward. Moreover, the substantia nigra was significantly activated in the prior decision-making phase, and involved in reward-anticipation in view of its strengthened functional connectivity with the mammillary body and the putamen in trial conditions with a high probability of reward. CONCLUSIONS: These findings support the role of reward anticipation in re-evaluating decisions based on the brain-behaviour correlation. Moreover, the study revealed the neural interaction between reward anticipation and decision-making.

What's in Stock? Drug drought anticipation during COVID-19 among people who use drugs and service providers.

BACKGROUND: As with other areas of life, drug markets have been impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic and related restrictions. This article examines how structurally vulnerable people who use drugs (PWUD) experienced and adapted to changes in street drug markets caused by lockdown measures. METHODS: The article builds on ethnographic fieldwork in two Danish cities in 2020, including in-depth interviews with 22 PWUD, and interviews with 20 service providers, including low-threshold service providers and outreach workers. RESULTS: The most consistently reported effect of lockdown measures on local drug markets related to increases in cannabis prices. Accounts of changes in drug availability varied greatly, with some participants reporting changing availability while others described the situation as similar to pre-lockdown conditions. Rather than a long-term drug shortage, changes reported by participants related to the anticipated disruption of local markets and drug scarcity, restrictions in access to cash and sellers seeking to capitalize on the crisis. CONCLUSION: Although no long-term drug scarcity was seen, the anticipation of a shortage was sufficient to impact on local drug market dynamics. Heterogeneity in PWUDs' experiences of access to drug markets during lockdown can to some degree be explained in terms of their varied embeddedness in social networks. While local markets proved resilient to lockdown measures, PWUD less embedded in social networks were more vulnerable to shifts in drug availability and to sellers' over-pricing of drugs.

Striatal hypoactivation during monetary loss anticipation in individuals with substance use disorders in a heterogenous urban American Indian sample.

Research suggests that disproportionate exposure to risk factors places American Indian (AI) peoples at higher risk for substance use disorders (SUD). Although SUD is linked to striatal prioritization of drug rewards over other appetitive stimuli, there are gaps in the literature related to the investigation of aversive valuation processing, and inclusion of AI samples. To address these gaps, this study compared striatal anticipatory gain and loss processing between AI-identified with SUD (SUD+; n = 52) and without SUD (SUD-; n = 35) groups from the Tulsa 1000 study who completed a monetary incentive delay (MID) task during functional magnetic resonance imaging. Results indicated that striatal activations in the nucleus accumbens (NAcc), caudate, and putamen were greatest for anticipating gains (ps < 0.001) but showed no group differences. In contrast to gains, the SUD+ exhibited lower NAcc (p = .01, d =0.53) and putamen (p = .04, d =0.40) activation to anticipating large losses than the comparison group. Within SUD+ , lower striatal responses during loss anticipations were associated with slower MID reaction times (NAcc: r = -0.43; putamen: r = -0.35) during loss trials. This is among the first imaging studies to examine underlying neural mechanisms associated with SUD within AIs. Attenuated loss processing provides initial evidence of a potential mechanism wherein blunted prediction of aversive consequences may be a defining feature of SUD that can inform future prevention and intervention targets.

Predicting price intervals under exogenously induced stress.

We present an experimental protocol to examine the relationship between exogenously induced stress and confidence in a setting applicable to financial markets. Confidence will be measured by a prediction interval for a one period ahead price forecast, based on a series of 100 previous prices; narrower (wider) prediction intervals will be indicative of greater (lower) confidence. Stress will be induced using the Cold Pressor Arm Wrap, a variation of the Cold Pressor Test. Risk attitudes, and personality traits are also considered as mediating factors.

Anticipation of temporally structured events in the brain.

Learning about temporal structure is adaptive because it enables the generation of expectations. We examined how the brain uses experience in structured environments to anticipate upcoming events. During fMRI (functional magnetic resonance imaging), individuals watched a 90 s movie clip six times. Using a hidden Markov model applied to searchlights across the whole brain, we identified temporal shifts between activity patterns evoked by the first vs. repeated viewings of the movie clip. In many regions throughout the cortex, neural activity patterns for repeated viewings shifted to precede those of initial viewing by up to 15 s. This anticipation varied hierarchically in a posterior (less anticipation) to anterior (more anticipation) fashion. We also identified specific regions in which the timing of the brain's event boundaries was related to those of human-labeled event boundaries, with the timing of this relationship shifting on repeated viewings. With repeated viewing, the brain's event boundaries came to precede human-annotated boundaries by 1-4 s on average. Together, these results demonstrate a hierarchy of anticipatory signals in the human brain and link them to subjective experiences of events.

Anticipating future events is essential. It allows individuals to plan and prepare what they will do seconds, minutes, or hours in the future. But how the brain can predict future events in both the short-term and long-term is not yet clear. Researchers know that the brain processes images or other sensory information in stages. For example, visual features are processed from lines to shapes to objects, and eventually scenes. This staged approach allows the brain to create representations of many parts of the world simultaneously. A similar hierarchy may be at play in anticipation. Different parts of the brain may track what is happening now, and what could happen in the next few seconds and minutes. This would provide a way for the brain to forecast upcoming events in the immediate, near, and more distant future at the same time. Now, Lee et al. show that the regions in the back of the brain anticipate the immediate future, while longer-term predictions are made in brain regions near the front. In the experiments, study participants watched a 90-second clip of the movie 'The Grand Budapest Hotel' six times while undergoing functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). Then, Lee et al. used computer modeling to compare the brain activity captured by fMRI during successive viewings. This allowed the researchers to watch participants' brain activity moment-by-moment. As the participants repeatedly watched the movie clip, their brains began to anticipate what was coming next. Regions near the back of the brain like the visual cortex anticipated events in the next 1 to 4 seconds. Areas in the middle of the brain anticipated 5 to 8 seconds in the future. The front of brain anticipated 8 to 15 seconds into the future. Lee et al. show that many parts of the brain work together to predict the near and more distant future. More research is needed to understand how this information translates into actions. Learning more may help scientists understand how diseases or injuries affect people's ability to plan and respond to future events.

Brain Activity Foreshadows Stock Price Dynamics.

Successful investing is challenging since stock prices are difficult to consistently forecast. Recent neuroimaging evidence suggests, however, that activity in brain regions associated with anticipatory affect may not only predict individual choice, but also forecast aggregate behavior out-of-sample. Thus, in two experiments, we specifically tested whether anticipatory affective brain activity in healthy humans could forecast aggregate changes in stock prices. Using functional magnetic resonance imaging, we found in a first experiment (n = 34, 6 females; 140 trials/subject) that nucleus accumbens activity forecast stock price direction, whereas anterior insula (AIns) activity forecast stock price inflections. In a second preregistered replication experiment (n = 39, 7 females) that included different subjects and stocks, AIns activity still forecast stock price inflections. Importantly, AIns activity forecast stock price movement even when choice behavior and conventional stock indicators did not (e.g., previous stock price movements), and classifier analysis indicated that forecasts based on brain activity should generalize to other markets. By demonstrating that AIns activity might serve as a leading indicator of stock price inflections, these findings imply that neural activity associated with anticipatory affect may extend to forecasting aggregate choice in dynamic and competitive environments such as stock markets.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Many try but fail to consistently forecast changes in stock prices. New evidence, however, suggests that anticipatory affective brain activity may not only predict individual choice, but also may forecast aggregate choice. Assuming that stock prices index collective choice, we tested whether brain activity sampled during the assessment of stock prices could forecast subsequent changes in the prices of those stocks. In two neuroimaging experiments, a combination of previous stock price movements and brain activity in a region implicated in processing uncertainty and arousal forecast next-day stock price changes-even when behavior did not. These findings challenge traditional assumptions of market efficiency by implying that neuroimaging data might reveal "hidden information" capable of foreshadowing stock price dynamics.

Late-Life Preparedness and Its Correlates: A Behavioral Perspective on Preparation.

OBJECTIVES: The present study examined the extent of late-life preparedness and its correlates. In accordance with behavior theories, we postulated that those who have prior experience with caregiving and who perceive such activities as more useful and less risky are more likely to engage in late-life preparatory activities. Because the perceived distance until aging-related life challenges become prevalent may play a role in late-life preparedness, we hypothesized that the effects of the correlates would vary depending on one's subjective remaining life expectation (SRLE). METHODS: Building upon cross-sectional data including 581 German adults from 18 to 93 years, we fitted a hurdle model that separately analyzes the presence and variety of self-reported action engagement to better handle the zero-inflated count measure of preparatory activities. RESULTS: The results revealed that the effects of perceived utility, caregiving experience, and SRLE were significant for both the presence and variety of activities. SRLE was found to moderate the observed effects in the models: The effect of perceived utility on the presence of at least one late-life preparatory activity was larger for those with lower SRLE. In contrast, among those with higher SRLE, having provided care increased the variety of preparatory activities. DISCUSSION: Findings suggest that some of the examined psychosocial factors are similarly associated with both the presence of at least one and the variety of late-life preparatory activities, although the extent of their effects varies depending on one's subjective life stage.

Graded expectations in visually situated comprehension: Costs and benefits as indexed by the N400.

Recently, Ankener et al. (Frontiers in Psychology, 9, 2387, 2018) presented a visual world study which combined both attention and pupillary measures to demonstrate that anticipating a target results in lower effort to integrate that target (noun). However, they found no indication that the anticipatory processes themselves, i.e., the reduction of uncertainty about upcoming referents, results in processing effort (cf. Linzen and Jaeger, Cognitive Science, 40(6), 1382-1411, 2016). In contrast, Maess et al. (Frontiers in Human Neuroscience, 10, 1-11, 2016) found that more constraining verbs elicited a higher N400 amplitude than unconstraining verbs. The aim of the present study was therefore twofold: Firstly, we examined whether the graded ICA effect, which was previously found on the noun as a result of a likelihood manipulation, replicates in ERP measures. Secondly, we set out to investigate whether the processes leading to the generation of expectations (derived during verb and scene processing) induce an N400 modulation. Our results confirm that visual context is combined with the verb's meaning to establish expectations about upcoming nouns and that these expectations affect the retrieval of the upcoming noun (modulated N400 on the noun). Importantly, however, we find no evidence for different costs in generating more or less specific expectations for upcoming nouns. Thus, the benefits of generating expectations are not associated with any costs in situated language comprehension.

I expect what you expect: An electrophysiological study on social expectation of pain.

Expectations and motor reactions related to pain are mainly acquired through personal experiences. Contingent negative variation (CNV) has been shown to be an informative electrophysiological measure of this pain anticipation. Expectations can also arise while observing others in painful conditions. However, it still remains unclear what are the neural correlates of this phenomenon and how the observation of others in pain can subsequently change our personal pain perception as well as our motor reaction to pain. Using CNV as a measure of expectation, this study aims to assess whether expectations formed through observation change the observer's own experience of pain and reaction to pain. A new cooperative task was designed where one participant, the model, received an electrical stimulation while another, the observer, watched the experiment and both were asked to stop the stimulation as fast as possible. Crucially, in a successive session, participants inverted their roles so that models became observers and vice versa. CNV was recorded in both participants simultaneously by means of two synchronized electroencephalograms. Results showed that CNV area did not differ between models and observers and reaction times were significantly faster in observers compared to models. Moreover, observers' pain perception was correlated to models' pain perception as well as to observers' empathy scores. These data show how expectations, perceptions as well as reactions related to pain are crucially affected not only by observation but by personal attitudes toward others and all these changes can be clearly described through CNV.

Event-related brain potentials reflect predictive coding of anticipated economic change.

Research has demonstrated the importance of economic forecasts for financial decisions at the aggregate economic level. However, little is known about the psychological and neurophysiological mechanisms that economic forecasts activate at the level of individual decision-making. In the present study, we used event-related brain potentials (ERPs) to test the hypothesis that economic forecasts influence individuals' internal model of the economy and their subsequent decision behavior. Using a simple economic decision-making game, the Balloon Analogue of Risk Task (BART) and predictive messages about possible economic changes in the game before each block, we test the idea that brain potentials time-locked to decision outcomes can vary as a function of exposure to economic forecasts. Behavioural results indicate that economic forecasts influenced the amount of risk that participants were willing to take. Analyses of brain potentials indicated parametric increases of the N1, P2, P3a, and P3b amplitudes as a function of the level of risk in subsequent inflation steps in the BART. Mismatches between economic forecasts and decision outcomes in the BART (i.e., reward prediction errors) were reflected in the amplitude of the P2, P3a, and P3b, suggesting increased attentional processing of unexpected outcomes. These electrophysiological results corroborate the idea that economic messages may indeed influence people's beliefs about the economy and bias their subsequent financial decision-making. Our findings present a first important step in the development of a low-level neurophysiological model that may help to explain the self-fulfilling prophecy effect of economic news in the larger economy.

Neighborhood Deprivation Shapes Motivational-Neurocircuit Recruitment in Children.

Implementing motivated behaviors on the basis of prior reward is central to adaptive human functioning, but aberrant reward-motivated behavior is a core feature of neuropsychiatric illness. Children from disadvantaged neighborhoods have decreased access to rewards, which may shape motivational neurocircuits and risk for psychopathology. Here, we leveraged the unprecedented neuroimaging data from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) study to test the hypothesis that neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage shapes the functional recruitment of motivational neurocircuits in children. Specifically, via the ABCD study's monetary-incentive-delay task (N = 6,396 children; age: 9-10 years), we found that children from zip codes with a high Area Deprivation Index demonstrate blunted recruitment of striatum (dorsal and ventral nuclei) and pallidum during reward anticipation. In fact, blunted dorsal striatal recruitment during reward anticipation mediated the association between Area Deprivation Index and increased attention problems. These data reveal a candidate mechanism driving elevated risk for psychopathology in children from socioeconomically disadvantaged neighborhoods.

Dark control: The default mode network as a reinforcement learning agent.

The default mode network (DMN) is believed to subserve the baseline mental activity in humans. Its higher energy consumption compared to other brain networks and its intimate coupling with conscious awareness are both pointing to an unknown overarching function. Many research streams speak in favor of an evolutionarily adaptive role in envisioning experience to anticipate the future. In the present work, we propose a process model that tries to explain how the DMN may implement continuous evaluation and prediction of the environment to guide behavior. The main purpose of DMN activity, we argue, may be described by Markov decision processes that optimize action policies via value estimates through vicarious trial and error. Our formal perspective on DMN function naturally accommodates as special cases previous interpretations based on (a) predictive coding, (b) semantic associations, and (c) a sentinel role. Moreover, this process model for the neural optimization of complex behavior in the DMN offers parsimonious explanations for recent experimental findings in animals and humans.

Status Variation in Anticipatory Stressors and Their Associations with Depressive Symptoms.

Members of structurally disadvantaged social groups report more frequent exposure to a variety of negative life events and chronic strains, yet little research has examined whether similar patterns exist for anticipatory stressors, or challenging circumstances that loom as potential threats in the future. This study uses data collected as part of a national survey of college seniors (N = 995) to examine how anticipatory stress regarding economic and residential security, exposure to traumatic events, and experiences of discrimination vary by gender identity, race-ethnicity, sexual orientation, and first-generation college student status. Consistent with stress theory, anticipatory stressors are more commonly reported by members of disadvantaged groups. Notably, variation in anticipatory stressors explains a nontrivial proportion of differences in depressive symptoms found across gender identity and sexual orientation categories. Findings signal the necessity of incorporating anticipatory stressors into research in the stress paradigm to further disentangle the contributions of social stressors to health disparities.

Determinants of Hepatitis C Treatment Adherence and Treatment Completion Among Veterans in the Direct Acting Antiviral Era.

BACKGROUND: Despite the availability of direct acting antiviral medications (DAAs), there are ongoing concerns about adherence to hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment. We sought to understand the barriers to and facilitators of DAA adherence in the Veteran population. METHODS: Patients completed semi-structured interviews focused on barriers to and facilitators of HCV treatment adherence both pre- and post-DAA treatment. Adherence was assessed via provider pill count and self-report. Thematic analyses were conducted in the qualitative software program Atlas.ti in order to understand anticipated barriers to and facilitators of treatment adherence and completion. Charts were reviewed for clinical data and sustained virologic response (SVR12). RESULTS: Of 40 patients, 15 had cirrhosis and 10 had prior interferon-based treatment. Pre-treatment interviews revealed anticipated barriers to adherence such as side effects (n = 21) and forgetting pills (n = 11). Most patients (n = 27) reported following provider advice, and others had unique reasons not to (e.g., feeling like a "guinea pig"). Post-treatment interviews uncovered facilitators of treatment including wanting to cure HCV (n = 17), positive results (n = 18), and minimal side effects (n = 15). Three patients (8%) did not complete therapy (whom we further elaborate on) and 6 (15%) missed doses but completed treatment. SVR12 was achieved by all participants who completed therapy (93%). Patients who did not complete therapy or missed doses were all treatment naïve, mostly non-cirrhotic (8 of 9), and often anticipated concerns with forgetting their medications. CONCLUSIONS: This qualitative study uncovered several unanticipated determinants of HCV treatment completion and provides rationale for several targeted interventions such as incorporating structured positive reinforcement.

Expectations of Racism and Carotid Intima-Media Thickness in African American Women.

OBJECTIVE: Several researchers have argued that racism-related stressors play an important role in adverse cardiovascular outcomes among African American women. However, studies have primarily focused on experiences of racism; thus, the role of expectations of racism is insufficiently understood. The current proof-of-concept study was designed to examine associations among expectations of racism, self-reported experiences of racism, and carotid intima-media thickness (IMT), a marker of cardiovascular risk, in African American women. METHODS: Participants were 52 healthy African American women, aged 30 to 50 years (M (SD) = 40.8 (4.3)). Expectations of racism were assessed with a modified version of the Race-Based Rejection Sensitivity Questionnaire, experiences of racism were assessed with the Schedule of Racist Events, and carotid IMT was measured using B-mode ultrasound. RESULTS: In linear regression analyses adjusted for age, expectations of racism were associated with higher levels of carotid IMT (b = .04, SE = .014, p = .013), after adjusting for experiences of racism. Findings remained significant after additional adjustments for cardiovascular risk factors (b = .03, SE = .014, p = .032). Associations were not confounded by additional stressors, hostility, or negative affect (depressive symptoms). CONCLUSIONS: Independent of actual reports of racism, "expectations" of racism may be associated with increased cardiovascular risk in African American women. In addition, although experiences of discrimination were associated with depressive symptoms, expectations of racism were not, suggesting that other negative emotions likely play a role. Future studies are needed to replicate these results in larger samples and to explore the psychological and physiological pathways through which expectations of racism might affect cardiovascular disease risk across a range of populations.

Communication between the Anterior Cingulate Cortex and Ventral Tegmental Area during a Cost-Benefit Reversal Task.

The anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) is implicated in value-based decision making, anticipation, and adaptation; however, how ACC activity modulates these behaviors is unclear. One possibility is via the ACC's connections with the ventral tegmental area (VTA), a dopaminergic region implicated in motivation and feedback processing. We tested this by monitoring ACC and VTA local field potentials in rats performing a cost-benefit reversal task that elicited both value-based and anticipatory choices. Partial directed coherence analyses revealed that elevated 4-Hz ACC-to-VTA signaling accompanied decisions that appeared to be anticipatory. ACC-to-VTA signaling also occurred post-reversal, consistent with it being involved in the initiation of non-default behavior. An analysis of 4-Hz signals in the other direction (VTA-to-ACC) revealed that it was elevated when the rats committed errors and that this signal was followed by behavioral adaptation. Together, these findings suggest that bidirectional communication between the ACC and VTA supports behavioral flexibility.

Young adult dual combusted cigarette and e-cigarette users' anticipated responses to a nicotine reduction policy and menthol ban in combusted cigarettes.

BACKGROUND: The aim of the study was to assess young adult dual e-cigarette (EC) and combusted cigarette (CC) users' anticipated responses to a hypothetical very low nicotine content product standard and menthol ban in CC. METHODS: Data came from 240 young adult (18-29 years) dual CC and EC users recruited via Amazon Mechanical Turk between June 20-22, 2017. Descriptive statistics were used to report sample characteristics. McNemar's tests were used to assess differences between product categories in terms of anticipated responses to hypothetical regulations. RESULTS: A hypothetical very low nicotine content product standard in CC resulted in reported intentions to quit or reduce CC use and increase use of EC (p's<0.001). Hypothetical restrictions regarding the availability of menthol CC resulted in marginally significant reported intentions to increase EC use (p = 0.080). Anticipated responses to regulation were associated with baseline EC and CC use characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: This work provides preliminary evidence of the impact that regulations regarding nicotine content and menthol in CC may have on the use of EC among young adult dual users.

An Electrophysiology Protocol to Measure Reward Anticipation and Processing in Children.

We present a protocol designed to measure the neural correlates of reward in children. The protocol allows researchers to measure both reward anticipation and processing. Its purpose is to create a reward task that is appropriate for young children with and without autism while controlling reward properties between two conditions: social and nonsocial. The current protocol allows for comparisons of brain activity between social and nonsocial reward conditions while keeping the reward itself identical between conditions. Using this protocol, we found evidence that neurotypical children demonstrate enhanced anticipatory brain activity during the social condition. Furthermore, we found that neurotypical children anticipate social reward more robustly than children with autism diagnoses. As the task uses snacks as a reward, it is most appropriate for young children. However, the protocol may be adapted for use with adolescent or adult populations if snacks are replaced by monetary incentives. The protocol is designed to measure electrophysiological events (event-related potentials), but it may be customized for use with eye-tracking or fMRI.

Impact of anticipated financial burden on patient decision to undergo contralateral prophylactic mastectomy.

BACKGROUND: We sought to determine whether patients undergoing contralateral, prophylactic mastectomy have greater anticipated and actual costs and financial burden than patients undergoing unilateral mastectomy, whether these financial considerations influence surgical decision making, and whether this affects satisfaction with surgical decision and overall quality of life. METHODS: Female patients with unilateral breast cancer who underwent mastectomy at a large academic institution were surveyed regarding their financial experience surrounding the decision whether to undergo contralateral, prophylactic mastectomy. RESULTS: Of 109 patients approached, 101 completed the survey (response rate: 93%); 55 patients (55%) had contralateral, prophylactic mastectomy. Of the respondents, 16% reported that their decision was at least somewhat affected by anticipated costs. More patients opting for contralateral, prophylactic mastectomy had a "very large" anticipated financial burden than unilateral mastectomy patients (26% vs 9%, P = .037), but actual out-of-pocket costs and financial burden were similar between the two groups. Contralateral, prophylactic mastectomy patients, however, did not differ from unilateral mastectomy patients in their satisfaction with their decision nor quality of life, regardless of out-of-pocket costs or financial burden (P > .05). CONCLUSION: Although contralateral, prophylactic mastectomy patients are more likely to anticipate a "very large" financial burden compared with unilateral mastectomy patients, this does not seem to deter them from the contralateral procedure.